4sight Health July 2, 2025
When actuaries from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) release their annual historic and projected figures on national health expenditures (NHEs), it’s always front-page news. It’s always big news because NHEs always go up. Either they go up a little slower than before or they go up a little faster than before.
Critics of the historic and projected NHE figures say CMS actuaries do little more than tweak their annual data based on a handful of standard social-economic variables like population growth, aging population, inflation, gross domestic product (GDP) percentages, etc. The actuaries don’t tweak them, say critics, for more subtle and more sophisticated variables like changing market dynamics, care delivery innovations, medical advances, commercialization of blockbuster drugs...
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