McKinsey January 12, 2026
The healthcare industry faces successive waves of challenging trends, with glimmers of opportunity in select segments.
The US healthcare system continues to face considerable financial strain, although there are pockets of opportunity. Industry EBITDA as a percentage of national health expenditures (NHE) fell from 11.2 percent in 2019 to 8.9 percent in 2024. In 2027, the picture is expected to worsen slightly, with industry EBITDA as a percentage of NHE expected to drop to 8.7 percent.
Payers and providers have borne the brunt of the decline to date and will continue to feel financial pressure in the immediate future. For example, payers are facing enrollment declines in Medicaid and Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans because of regulatory changes. Meanwhile, providers...
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