Forbes March 18, 2025
Jeff Mahler

Robots powered by physical AI have the potential to transform applications such as transportation, logistics, manufacturing and even the home. With rapid advances in generative AI, this revolution feels closer than ever.

This anticipation spurs bold predictions. Morgan Stanley claimed that the humanoid market will reach 40,000 robots by 2030. Such predictions may sound familiar to those who followed autonomous vehicles. In 2016, Business Insider predicted there would be 10 million self-driving cars by 2020. (The actual number of fully autonomous vehicles in 2020 was tiny.)

It’s hard to fault the sources as the future is inherently hard to predict. What is more straightforward, and often more useful, is to instead frame where a technology sits within a life cycle...

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