Healthcare Economist August 5, 2024
Clinical trials are short, but the benefits of many drugs lasts months or even years beyond the duration of these trials. To quantify the full costs and benefits of a treatment over time (for instance as used for HTA purposes), one must extrapolate this clinical benefits. Commonly, this extrapolation is done using a parametric function (as recommended by NICE’s Decision Support Unit (DSU) technical support document on survival analysis (TSD 14). One challenge is that the parametric functions used to extrapolate survival aren’t typically very flexible. As Latimer and Rutherford (2024) write of these limitations:
in particular, exponential, Weibull, Gompertz and Gamma models cannot cope with any turning points in the hazard function over time (that is, the rate...
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