Deloitte April 15, 2021
Since its inception nearly 20 years ago, enrollment in Medicare Advantage (MA) plans has regularly outpaced official forecasts. The 2020 Trustee Report, for example, projected MA penetration would reach 43.2% in 2029. According to the latest data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), enrollment is already approaching that penetration rate.
We expect steady enrollment growth in MA will continue in the first half of this decade. This will likely be driven by a combination of trailing-edge boomers (the population that will age into Medicare over the next 10 years) reaching age 65 and selecting MA at a higher rate, and existing enrollees switching from traditional Medicare to MA. This has the potential to push MA enrollment to...
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