McKinsey November 18, 2025
Jason Azzoparde, Oleg Bestsennyy, Shubham Singhal, Tuhina Kapoor

US healthcare organizations should rethink care and business models in response to substantial economic pressures and evolving care demands.

The US healthcare industry stands at a crossroads, shaped by rising costs, an aging population, and shifting care demands. National health expenditures in the United States are projected to outpace GDP growth by about 1.2 percentage points over the next five years. Although healthcare as a share of GDP has stayed at about 17.5 percent since 2009, the projected growth in expenditures could raise healthcare spending to 20.3 percent of GDP by 2033.

At the same time, demographic shifts are reshaping healthcare demand: The population aged 65 and older is projected to grow by almost 3 percent annually through 2030, while...

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