National Health Expenditure Projections, 2023–32: Payer Trends Diverge As Pandemic-Related Policies Fade

Health care spending growth is expected to outpace that of the gross domestic product (GDP) during the coming decade, resulting in a health share of GDP that reaches 19.7 percent by 2032 (up from 17.3 percent in 2022). National health expenditures are projected to have grown 7.5 percent in 2023, when the COVID-19 public health emergency ended. This reflects broad increases in the use of health care, which is associated with an estimated 93.1 percent of the population being insured that year. In 2024, Medicaid enrollment is projected to decline significantly as states continue their eligibility redeterminations. Simultaneously, private health insurance enrollment is projected to increase because of the extension...