Health Affairs August 7, 2024
James C. Capretta

The Medicare trustees issued their annual report on the program’s financial outlook on May 6. The headline is that the Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund is now expected to be unable to pay for all incoming claims starting in 2036, which is five years later than the estimate from last year’s report. Congress is likely to view this improvement as confirmation that there is no need to rush into reform legislation.

It is an unfortunate political reality that the solvency status of HI is what is of most concern to elected officials even though the other parts of Medicare—falling within the Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) trust fund—present equally pressing financial challenges.

The 2024 report, like all of those that preceded...

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