Healthcare DIVE January 16, 2026
Rebecca Pifer Parduhn

The findings are “very depressing,” one commissioner said.

The federal government will pay an estimated $76 billion more to cover Medicare Advantage seniors this year than it would if those same seniors were in traditional Medicare, according to new estimates from an influential advisory group.

It’s a smaller sum than last year thanks to the continued phase-in of a new risk adjustment model. Overpayments were estimated to reach $84 billion in 2025.

Still, the report released Friday by the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission is likely to add more fuel to concerns about overpayments in the privatized Medicare program, which has grown to cover more than half of all Medicare enrollees.

“When you read this chapter it’s hard not to be...

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