Health Affairs June 26, 2025
In the most recent National Health Expenditure (NHE) Projections, for 2024-33, Sean Keehan and colleagues at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) predict strong growth in health care expenditures in 2024, and average annual growth over the entire projection period that exceeds growth in GDP. According to their projections, health care is set to comprise 20.3 percent of GDP by 2033. This increase in health spending is expected despite declines in coverage, prompted by the continued unwinding of Medicaid pandemic policies and lower enrolment in private insurance stemming from the expiration of the IRA’s temporarily enhanced premium tax subsidies for Marketplace plans.
Expectations of crossing the symbolic threshold of one in every five dollars in the US economy...
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