Framework reveals how neglecting income, education and ethnicity affects disease spread predictions on COVID-19 data

Medical Xpress October 11, 2024
Queen Mary, University of London

An international team of researchers have developed an innovative approach to epidemic modeling that could transform how scientists and policymakers predict the spread of infectious diseases. Led by Dr. Nicola Perra, Reader in Applied Mathematics, the study published in Science Advances introduces a new framework that incorporates socioeconomic status (SES) factors—such as income, education, and ethnicity—into epidemic models.

“Epidemic models typically focus on age-stratified contact patterns, but that’s only part of the picture,” said Dr. Perra.

“Our new framework acknowledges that other factors—like income and education—play a significant role in how people interact and respond to public health measures. By including these SES variables, we’re able to create more realistic models that better reflect real-world epidemic outcomes.”