McKinsey August 17, 2020
Ending lockdowns alone won’t restore confidence or growth. Only when the novel coronavirus is under control will economic growth resume.
On March 23, 2020, McKinsey introduced the twin imperatives of safeguarding our lives and our livelihoods and a nine-scenario framework to describe potential economic and COVID-19 outcomes (Exhibit 1). At the time, we wrote that the best combined outcomes depended on a rapid and effective public-health response that controlled the spread of the novel coronavirus within two to three months. Similarly, in May, we wrote that crushing uncertainty by reducing the virus spread to near zero was likely the big “unlock” for most economies.
Today, only a handful of countries seem to have placed the virus under control. (Economic-policy...
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