AXIOS December 2, 2025
Ben Berkowitz

Growth will slow and inflation will rise in the U.S. next year, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development forecast Tuesday, as the labor market weakens and tariff price pressures remain.

The big picture: The pessimistic forecast has an even gloomier caveat: Things could get worse if the AI-driven stock market bubble were to burst.

What they’re saying: “A key downside risk to the projection is a correction to equity markets that have been buoyed by the hopes of high returns to investment in AI, although new advances in AI could boost growth in the years ahead,” the OECD wrote in its semi-annual projection.

By the numbers: The group projects the...

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