Forbes October 1, 2024
Mark Travers

Mental models are cognitive frameworks or representations that help individuals understand and interpret the world around them. They are the mental shortcuts or simplified versions of reality that people use to process information, make decisions and solve problems. Mental models influence how we perceive situations, predict outcomes and decide on courses of action.

Here are two essential mental models for making intelligent decisions and how to use them effectively.

1. Probabilistic Thinking

Probabilistic thinking is a mental model that involves making decisions based on the likelihood of various outcomes rather than certainty. Instead of thinking in absolute terms (e.g., something will or will not happen), probabilistic thinking assesses the probability or chance of different scenarios occurring. It involves:

  • Assessing...

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