Health Populi June 24, 2020
Whether healthcare spending in 2021 increases by double-digits or falls by one-third directly depends on how the coronavirus pandemic will play out over the rest of 2020, based on PwC’s annual report on medical cost trends for 2021.
The three cost scenarios are based on assumptions shown in the fine print on the first chart:
The medium scenario, a sort of “return to normal” where medical trend could stay even at 6.0%, equal to the 2020 trend. This assumes that healthcare spending recovers by October 2020 as patients return to hospitals and doctors’ offices for regular care patterns. In 2021, spending would return to pre-COVID projections.
A low scenario envisions medical trend growth of 4.0%, based on a second...
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