Health Affairs February 27, 2019
Sherry Glied, Marilyn Tavenner

The Office of the Actuary of the Centers for Medicare and Medicare Services (CMS), like many health policy pundits, opines on the likely future costs of health care programs. On February 20, they published projections for the decade from 2018 to 2027, forecasting that by 2027, US health spending would comprise 19.4 percent of our gross domestic product (GDP). Like the forecasts of other health policy pundits, the actuaries’ office forecast is often wrong, because accurate crystal balls are in short supply everywhere. Unlike the forecasts of most other health policy pundits, however, the CMS forecasts don’t just provide broad, timeless, directional statements. Instead, they report annual projection estimates that describe precisely how much they expect will be spent by...

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