Medical Xpress March 22, 2022
Lisa Marshall, University of Colorado at Boulder

In the summer of 2021, as the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic wore on in the United States, infectious disease forecasters began to call attention to a disturbing trend.

The previous January, as models warned that U.S. infections would continue to rise, cases plummeted instead. In July, as forecasts predicted infections would flatten, the delta variant soared, leaving public health agencies scrambling to reinstate mask mandates and social distancing measures.

“Existing models generally did not predict the big surges and peaks,” said geospatial data scientist Morteza Karimzadeh, an assistant professor of geography at CU Boulder. “They failed when we needed them most.”

New research from Karimzadeh and his colleagues suggests a new approach, using and vast,...

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