Health Affairs December 8, 2020
Rena M. Conti, Susan Athey, Richard G. Frank, Jonathan Gruber

The novel disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) has been a shock to both our health and wealth, with more than 276,000 dead in the US and economic disruption that some have estimated as high as more than $16 trillion. These unprecedented costs imply that there are enormous social returns to therapeutic developments that would prevent or treat COVID-19 infections—or infections stemming from a potential future pandemic—effectively.

Most of the public discussion about regaining our health and our wealth in the COVID-19 era is centered on the creation of a vaccine. Writing in the beginning of December 2020, global efforts to develop a COVID-19 vaccine appear likely to produce one or more soon. Notwithstanding this good news, vaccine development...

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