Fierce Health Payer January 15, 2020
Robert King

The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation (CMMI) will only save Medicare nearly half of what the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected, according to a new analysis.

The analysis, released Wednesday from consulting firm Avalere Health, estimates that CMMI’s payment demonstrations will save Medicare $18 billion from 2017 through 2026, compared to $34 billion projected by CBO back in 2016. The study comes as the Trump administration is increasingly turning to CMMI to spearhead new payment models to shift Medicare payments to value-based care.

The key reason for the difference is likely a lack of experience at CBO on how to evaluate payment models, Avalere researchers say.

“When CBO put out their number there hadn’t been any experience with CMMI...